sylver_dragon

My friends know, and we usually get together and play games on a day designated as my birthday. It’s usually on the weekend before or after the actual day. As for remembering, if you know someone well enough to be present at their birthday, just write it down. You all have phones, don’t you? Honestly though, the older I get, the less it has mattered. It’s really just an excuse for us to get together. My wife gets me something sweet (usually a cinnamon roll), everyone sings “happy birthday” and we go back to whatever game is on the table. It’s nice to be thought of, but mostly I just want to be with friends and family.

Your graph is missing the more important factor: demand.
I’m guessing you weren’t born into money, which is what most ultra wealthy people do. So failing that, you need to cultivate a skillset which includes doing something that other people want and are willing to pay for. And yes, that often means learning specialized, or dangerous skills. Take something like a high voltage electrician, they can make good moeny but they need a specific skillset, certifications, and fucking up can mean dying very quickly. Construction divers or underwater welders can earn good money as well. Though again, specific skillsets, certifications, and risks. On the less risky side, programmers can make good money, though that usually does require a lot of learning. IT and cybersecurity also fit this bill, though they do tend to follow your graph.

In short, businesses pay for people because they have a need for something to get done. No need, no money. You can be the most knowledgeable person in the world about flaking stone tools, and you are going to be struggling. Another route to income is starting your own business, but this has similar pitfalls. Start a business which people aren’t interested in and you’re going to flounder. Also, running a business does take it’s own skillset, beyond the skillset involved in whatever the business’s focus area is. Though, done right, you can focus on running the business and hire people to do the other stuff.

You are falling into a trap a lot of young, smart people do. You are assuming that knowledge and intelligence is what you need to succeed. It’s not your fault, you’ve been fed that line for the last 12-ish years of your life by schools and society. It’s bullshit. They do help, but knowing the right people, luck and the ability to socialize are more important. In short, go to business school and go into management. If that doesn’t appeal to you (and that is perfectly valid) then you need to find and learn skills that businesses are willing to pay for. At the moment, that probably means a trade, like electrician or welder; or, a technical role such as engineering, IT or programming. If your interest is in the Humanities, sorry you’re probably fucked.

When we finished our basement, I had the electrician run two Cat-6 cables to a box right by every outlet and back to a single point. I had to terminate and punch everything down. But, now I have Ethernet throughout the basement.
Totally worth it.

Along with the things others have said (Backups, Linux, Docker, Networking) I’d also recommend getting comfortable with server and network security. A lot of this is wrapped up in the simple mantra “install your goddamn updates!” But, there is more to it than that. For example, if you go with Nextcloud, read through their hardening guide and seriously consider implementing all of the recommendation. Also think through how you intend to manage both the server and instance. If this is all local, then it is easier as you can keep SSH access to the server firewalled off from the internet. If you host part of your stuff “in the cloud”, you’ll want to start looking at limiting down access and using keys to login (which is good practice for all situations). Also, never use default credentials. You may also want to familiarize yourself with the logs provided by the applications and maybe setup some monitoring around them. I personally run Nextcloud and I feed all my logs into Splunk (you can run a free instance in a docker container). I have a number of dashboards I look at every morning to keep an eye on things. E.g. Failed/successful logins, traffic sources, URI requests, file access, etc. If your server is attached to the internet it will be under attack constantly. Fail2Ban on my wireguard container banned 112 IP addresses over the last 24 hours, for 3 failed attempts to login via SSH. Less commonly, attackers try to log in to my Nextcloud instance. And my WordPress site is under constant attack. If you choose to run Wordpress, be very careful about the plugins you choose to install, and then keep them up to date. Wordpress itself is reasonably secure, the plugins are a shit-show and worse when they aren’t kept up to date.

Every site has a dev environment, some are lucky enough to have a separate production one.

Hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic reached its peak in 1923

One thing about this, is that inflation peaking or stabilizing does not undo the previous years of inflation. Just because prices are no longer rising out of control, doesn’t mean that people’s wages suddenly catch up with the price hikes which have already happened. It’s part of the reason consumer confidence can lag so far behind top line economic numbers. While the hyperinflation of the 1920’s may not have directly caused the rise of the NSDAP, it’s lingering effects and resentment caused by it, likely played some role.

the FDA actually has less than 10 employees. Everyone else is an outside contractor.

You can search for FDA employees here (the US Government has a lot of transparency around employees). Also, it wouldn’t surprise me to find a lot of contractors in scientific and technical roles in the FDA, the FedGov uses a lot of contractors. I actually spent time, at a site, first as a contractor and then as a direct employee. The only thing that materially changed was whether or not my badge said “contractor” on it. I literally sat in the same seat and did the same job. Pay was pretty close, but the benefits were way better. The line between contractor and govie was pretty blury and more of a running joke than a real wall. Maybe that was just the departments I worked for, but I suspect my experience was more typical.

My all time favorite was Robotech, though it has not aged well.
I also went through a lot of Disney in my youth:

• Gummi Bears
• Duck tales
• Darkwing Duck

And then there was the smattering of others:

• Dungeons and Dragons
• Thundercats

I work in cybersecurity. One of our common issues is people getting malware while surfing for porn. I’m willing to bet that it’s not all looking and no touching.

Yes, as soon as we actually invent AI.
The Large Language Models we have now aren’t really it. When we have programs which can come to a well reasoned decision and actually explain the logic of said decision, then we’ll start having something approaching AI. For now, it’s just a well directed random number generator.

The kids are over the moon with their gifts. Ma’s in her bath tub and I’m in my cups. And I’m about to settle in for a long evening of Nethack. So ya, I’m feeling pretty good for Christmas evening.

I hope everyone here who is feeling down finds something in the new year to make them happy.

I’m sure there are several out there. But, when I was starting out, I didn’t see one and just rolled my own. The process was general enough that I’ve been able to mostly just replace the SteamID of the game in the Dockerfile and have it work well for other games. It doesn’t do anything fancy like automatic updating; but, it works and doesn’t need anything special.

I see containers as having a couple of advantages:

1. Separation of dependencies - while not as big of issue as it used to be, just knowing that you won’t end up with the requirements for one application conflicting with another is one less issue to worry about. Additionally, you can do anything you want to one container, without having an effect on another container. You don’t get stuck wanting to reboot or revert the system, but not wanting to break a different running service.
2. Portability - Eventually, you are going to replace the OS of that VM (at least, you should). Moving a container to a new OS is dead simple. Re-installing an application on a new OS, moving data and configs can be anywhere from easy to a pain in the arse, depending on the software.
3. Easier fall back - Have you ever upgraded an application and had everything go to shit? In my years working as a sysadmin, I lost way too many evenings to this sort of bullshit. And while VM snapshots should make reverting easy, sometimes it just didn’t work out that way. Containers force enough separation of applications that you can do just about anything to one container and not effect others.
4. Less dependency on a single install - Have you ever had a system just get FUBAR, and after a few hours of digging the answer seems to be, just format the drive and start over? Maybe you tried some weird application out and the uninstall wasn’t really clean. By having all that crap happen in containers, you can isolate the damage. Nuke the container, nuke the image, and the base OS is still clean.
5. Easier version testing - Want to try out upgrading to version 2 of an application, but worried that it may not be fully baked yet or the new configs may take a while to get right? Do it off in a separate container on a copy of the data. You can do this with VMs and snapshots; but, I find containers to be less overhead.

That all said, if an application does not have an official container image, the added complexity of creating and maintaining your own image can be a significant downside. One of my use cases for containers is running game servers (e.g. Valheim). There isn’t an official image; so, I had to roll my own. The effort to set this up isn’t zero and, when trying to sort out an image for a new game, it does take me a while before I can start playing. And those images need to be updated when a new version of the game releases. Technically, you can update a running container in a lot of cases; but, I usually end up rebuilding it at some point anyway.

I’d also note that, careful use of VMs and snapshots can replicate or mitigate most of the advantages I listed. I’ve done both (decade and a half as a sysadmin). But, part of that “careful use” usually meant spinning up a new VM for each application. Putting multiple applications on the same OS install was usually asking for trouble. Eventually, one of the applications would get borked and having the flexibility to just nuke the whole install saved a lot of time and effort. Going with containers removed the need to nuke the OS along with the application to get a similar effect.

At the end of the day, though. It’s your box, you do what you are most comfortable with and want to support. If that’s a monolithic install, then go for it. While I, or other might find containers a better answer for us, maybe it isn’t for you.

I’m not going to defend everything the TSA does. And they do have a lot of problems. But, the lines at the checkpoint are the result of trade-offs in security. For all things security related, it’s about managing risk. You will never eliminate risk, so you need to pick and choose where to apply controls to reduce the worst risks and accept some risk in other areas.

Think about the possible outcomes from terrorist attacks on airports. There are several possible scenarios:

1. The attacker kills a few people in the airport using a direct weapon (gun, knife, etc.)
2. The attacker kills a lot of people in a small area with a area weapon (bomb, gas, chemical, etc.)
3. The attacker destroys an airplane in flight, killing everyone onboard.
4. The attacker hijacks the airplane and takes everyone onboard for ransom.
5. The attacker hijacks the airplane and uses it as a weapon, killing everyone on board and more people on the ground.

We could probably come up with other cases, but I think this covers the bulk of it. So, let’s dive into managing these risks. What are the effects of such attacks, if successful?
Looking at case 1, how many people are likely to be killed? Well, that depends on the police response time and the effectiveness of the attacker’s weapon. But, based on other mass casualty events, this probably falls into the range of 10-30 people. It could move outside this range, but this is pretty typical of such situations. To pick a number in the middle, will say they the expected loss for such an attack is around 20.
With Case 2, again there is variability. But, it’s also something we have analogs for and may be able to put a range of casualties on. The Boston Marathon bombing in 2013 killed 6. The attack on Kabul Airport in 2021 during the US evacuation killed 182, though that also included multiple gunmen attacking after the explosion. Let’s put the loss rate around 50 for as single bomb, assuming a very packed area and a very effective bomb.
For Case 3, the numbers are a bit easier to get a handle on. Typical airliners carry anywhere from 100-200 passengers. The 737 MAX 8-200 is designed for 200, while the Airbus A200-100 carries around 100 passengers. We’ll pin the loss rate here at 150, as attackers are likely to target larger aircraft for this sort of attack.
Case 4 is basically Case 3, but with an optional loss of only money. For that reason, I’m going to remove this case, but wanted to mention it to avoid the “well akshuly” crowd, since this is a historic problem.
That leaves Case 5. And it’s Case 4’s situation, plus some number of people on the ground. Certainly, not every such use of an airplane as a weapon will be as successful as the attack on 9/11. And that also involved multiple successful attacks. But, let’s assume that such attacks will hit populated buildings and cause significant damage. We’ll pin the expected loss at 200, This is 150 for the airplane and 50 on the ground, somewhat equivalent to Case 2 with a bomb in a crowded area.

Ok, so we have expected losses, now lets talk about how often we expect such attacks to happen? And yes, this is a rough guess. But, since terrorists are unlikely to publish their plans, it’s the best we can do. We also face a difficulty in that these are still (thankfully) pretty rare events. And trying to extrapolate from a small set of data points is always a fraught exercise. So, fell free to quibble over these numbers, but I don’t think any numbers which fall into a reasonable range will change things much.
Case 1 - This attack as a pretty low barrier to entry. If a person can be found to perform the attack, arming them isn’t terribly hard. So, we let’s assume we get 2 of these attacks a year. I don’t think we’re actually getting that, but out goal is just to get into the right ballpark.
Case 2 - This attack takes a touch more work, bomb making isn’t that hard, but making a really effective one isn’t easy either. This type of attack does have the advantage that it doesn’t always require the attacker to die in the process. So, it might be easier to find someone willing to engage in such an attack. Let’s call this 1 per year.
Case 3 - This also requires a bomb, but it may not need to be quite as big to be effective. Granted, modern aircraft can be amazingly resilient (see Aloha Flight 243). This attack also results in the attacker dying, so that can be a bit harder to source. So, lets say this happens once every other year, or 1/2 per year.
Case 5 - So, no bomb this time, but you have to have an attacker not only willing to die in the process, but also go through enough flight training to fly the aircraft to it’s target. And you need the training itself. Plus, the attacker needs to get a weapon onto the aircraft. And since they need to overpower 100-200 people who might just take exception to the hijacking, you probably need multiple attackers willing to die in the attack. This is a pretty high bar to clear; so, let’s say that these attacks happen at a rate of 1 every 5 years.

Ok, so let’s consider our Annualized Loss Expectancy (ALE) with what we have:

Alright, so lets start talking about controls we can use to mitigate these attacks. By raw numbers, the thing we should care about most is Case 3, as that has the highest ALE. So, what can we do about bombs on airplanes? Making them more resilient seems like a good start, but if we could do that, the military would have done it long ago. So, really the goal is to keep bombs out of airplanes. And that’s going to mean some sort of screening. We could just say “no carry on, period” and move the problem to the cargo hold. This would reduce the frequency of Case 3 and Case 5, as it would be much harder to get a bomb or weapon onto an airplane, without a bag to hide them in. But, travelers are not likely to give up all carried on bags. So, that really leaves us with searching bags and controlled checkpoints to do it. Of course, as has been noted, this would likely mean that Cases 1 and 2 become deadlier. Let’s put some numbers to it. Let’s say that checkpoints reduce the frequency of Cases 3 and 5 by a factor of 4 and increase the Loss Expectancy of Cases 1 and 2 by 1.5.

And we could push the numbers around for the effect of the checkpoints. And we could look at other controls or controls in combination. But, this is the sort of risk analysis which would need to be done to make such decisions. And, ideally, the numbers chosen would be done with a bit more care than my rectal extraction method. Can I say that anyone at the TSA/DHS/etc did this sort of analysis? No, but I suspect there has been some work on it. And it probably does lead to the conclusion that the expected loss is lower for airports with checkpoints than airports without. Though, that doesn’t excuse the TSA’s abysmal track record for tests done by the FBI.

My list of items I look for:

• A docker image is available. Not some sort of make or build script which make gods know what changes to my system, even if the end result is a docker image. Just have a docker image out on Dockerhub or a Dockerfile as part of the project. A docker-compose.yaml file is a nice bonus.
• Two factor auth. I understand this is hard, but if you are actually building something you want people to seriously use, it needs to be seriously secured. Bonus points for working with my YubiKey.
• Good authentication logging. I may be an outlier on this one, but I actually look at the audit logs for my services. Having a log of authentication activity (successes and failures) is important to me. I use both fail2ban to block off IPs which get up to any fuckery and I manually blackhole entire ASNs when it seems they are sourcing a lot of attacks. Give me timestamps (in ISO8601 format, all other formats are wrong), IP address, username, success or failure (as a independent field, not buried in a message or other string) and any client information you can (e.g. User-Agent strings).
• Good error logging. Look, I kinda suck, I’m gonna break stuff. When I do, it’s nice to have solid logging giving me an idea of what I broke and to provide a standardized error code to search on. It also means that, when I give up and post it as an issue to your github page, I can provide you with some useful context.

As for that hackernews response, I’d categorically disagree with most of it.

An app, self-contained, (essentially) a single file with minimal dependencies.

Ya…no. Complex stuff is complex. And a lot of good stuff is complex. My main, self-hosted app is NextCloud. Trying to run that as some monolithic app would be brain-dead stupid. Just for the sake of maintainability, it is going to need to be a fairly sprawling list of files and folders. And it’s going to be dependent on some sort of web server software. And that is a very good place to NOT roll your own. Good web server software is hard, secure web server software is damn near impossible. Let the large projects (Apache/Nginx) handle that bit for you.

Not something so complex that it requires docker.

“Requires docker” may be a bit much. But, there is a reason people like to containerize stuff, it avoids a lot of problems. And supporting whatever random setup people have just sucks. I can understand just putting a project out as a container and telling people to fuck off with their magical snowflake setup. There is a reason flatpak is gaining popularity.
Honestly, I see docker as a way to reduce complexity in my setup. I don’t have to worry about dependencies or having the right version of some library on my OS. I don’t worry about different apps needing different versions of the same library. I don’t need to maintain different virtual python environments for different apps. The containers “just work”. Hell, I regularly dockerize dedicated game servers just for my wife and I to play on.

Not something that requires you to install a separate database.

Oh goodie, let’s all create our own database formats and re-learn the lessons of the '90s about how hard databases actually are! No really, fuck off with that noise. If your app needs a small database backend, maybe try SQLite. But, some things just need a real database. And as with web servers, rolling your own is usually a bad plan.

Not something that depends on redis and other external services.

Again, sometimes you just need to have certain functionality and there is no point re-inventing the wheel every time. Breaking those discrete things out into other microservices can make sense. Sure, this means you are now beholden to everything that other service does; but, your app will never be an island. You are always going to be using libraries that other people wrote. Just try to avoid too much sprawl. Every dependency you spin up means your users are now maintaining an extra application. And you should probably build a bit of checking into your app to ensure that those dependencies are in sync. It really sucks to upgrade a service and have it fail, only to discover that one of it’s dependencies needed to be upgraded manually first, and now the whole thing is corrupt and needs to be restored from backup. Yes, users should read the release notes, they never do.
The corollary here is to be careful about setting your users up for a supply chain attack. Every dependency or external library you add is one more place for your application to be attacked. And just because the actual vulnerability is in SomeCoolLib.js, it’s still your app getting hacked. You chose that library, you’re now beholden to everything it gets wrong.

At the end of it all, I’d say the best app to write is the one you are interested in writing. The internet is littered with lots of good intentions and interesting starts. There is a lot less software which is actually feature complete and useful. If you lose interest, because you are so busy trying to please a whole bunch of idiots on the other side of the internet, you will never actually release anything. You do you, and fuck all the haters. If what you put out is interesting and useful, us users will show up and figure out how to use it. We’ll also bitch and moan, no matter how great your app is. It’s what users do. Do listen, feedback is useful. But, also remember that opinions are like assholes: everyone has one, and most of them stink.

Make sure those tablets get baked by a fire when your city is pillaged and burned. Raw clay doesn’t stand up well to water.

When you die, they will put two dates on your tombstone. The day you were born and the day you died. And, in between will be a little dash. That dash represents everything that mattered about your life. All your achievements and failures, all your joy and all your pain. All roll up in just a little dash. Make the most of it before that second date is written.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=otdii_hrT4Q

Expect a lot of boredom.
While my experience is from different states, I’m pretty sure that part is universal. Bring a book. Listen to instructions and just go with the flow. But mostly, expect to be bored.

I was lucky that, despite being somewhat religious, my parents were fine with me being an atheist. We would even debate the merits of religion and they did not have any issues with my questioning of their beliefs. Both were Lutheran and they had raised me in that tradition. I went to Sunday school, attended the Lutheran Catechism and reached the point of Confirmation. And that was right about the time I realized that the whole thing seemed to be based on a bunch of old stories with no more evidence than elves or faeries. And that was always the crux of my issue with their religion, and one they could never argue past.

When it came to my kids, they have been raised with my complete lack of belief and my wife being agnostic. We spend our Sunday mornings sleeping in and not going to any sort of church/temple/forest altar. Though, that last might happen, if it’s ruins at the end of a nice hike. My parents never expressed any disapproval and the lack of religion was never an issue. Technically, my mother is still kicking about and could suddenly go off the deep end, though I strongly doubt that’s in the cards.

At the same time, my wife and I had discussed religion before we had kids and what we might do in the event it became an issue. The simple answer was, “fuck 'em”. I love my parents, but my kids come first. If my parents had decided to get stupid over us not indoctrinating our kids in their fairy tales, then I would have just removed them from my life a few years before death did it anyway. Sure, it would have meant the kids never knowing their grandparents. But, there are lots of assholes in this world, I don’t see the need to personally inflict them all upon my children.

The best thing you can do is talk to your partner and have a plan. I would say that, if you expect it to be a point of contention with your parents, you might want to talk with them about your views on religion before it gets to that point. It doesn’t need to be anything confrontational, just be up front and say, “I don’t believe what you do”. You don’t need to go on a Dawkins style, “your religion sucks and you are morons for believing it.” Just make it clear that you don’t believe. It’s still entirely possible to have a warm, loving relationship with folks who don’t believe as you do. It just requires that each side treats the other with basic human decency and respect.