Burping and farting are tiny, but if we’re talking gasses and changing weight, the vast majority of the mass you lose from fat when you lose weight actually comes out in your breath.

It’s okay to be wrong

If you’ve got your cute lil kid in that cart then the meme holds up

And some basic image editing! At last

Also not a doctor but glucometers can be cheap, not that scary, and answer exactly this question.